THE LOGIC BOMB FOR DEMOGRAPHICS
The changes in the market are driven by an unstoppable global logic
- Women are having less children in their life time. Fertility is falling fast.
- People are living longer. Life expectancy is increasing.
- People are living healthier longer. "Healthy Ageing" is increasing.
- Fertility falls because of declines in child mortality; increases in the opportunity cost of children; cultural pressures and falling sperm count
- Life expectancy is increasing because of the decline in accidental deaths and advances in medicine.
- Country level population also depends on migration.
To Understand Changes we need to look at Fertility, Life Expectancy, Healthy Ageing; Child Mortality; The Cost of Children; Cultural Pressures; Falling Sperm Count; Accidental death and medical advances; Migration Now read on....
A recent Analysis Confirms the Drop in Sperm Count.
Fertility Decline Due to Declining Sperm Count
Between the ages of 25 and 35 unprotected sex at the correct time of the month will result in pregnancy between 25% and 35% of the time. There is a 90% chance that the child will be carried full term and a 1 in 900 chance that it will have Down Syndrome.
As time goes by the numbers deteriorate, at first slowly, and then very quickly. At 35 the chances of conception drop to 20%. At 37 it drops to 15% and at 40 it is down to 10%. By 45 it is 5%. Miscarriages increase to 25% at 35 and rise to 40% at 40. Down Syndrome incidence increases from 1 in 300 at 35 to 1 in 50 at 45.
Shanna Swan, Count Down 2020
Both Sexes to Blame for Fertility Problems
Data from the clinics treating fertility problems show that 25% to 33% of the problems are due to the woman. Exactly the same proportion come because of male issues. The balance are due to the combination. Each individual could probably have a child but not with this partner. Exactly the same story is true of miscarriages. Men and women share the responsibility. With age a man’s sperm will have an increased proportion of “scrambled” DNA. As the impact on the foetus emerges the body rejects it.
Count Down, Shanna Swan 2020
Fertility Mis-Conceptions
Surveys of new mothers show that 83% had under estimated how long it would take to have a child. They were also much too optimistic about the chances of a mis-carriage. The situation gets worse as women age. At 35 they over- estimate the chance of a woman getting pregnant at 40 by 50%.
The UK data shows the current success of IVF to be 32% at 35 or under. This drops to 25% between 35 and 37, 19% between 38 and 39 and 11% for women aged 40 to 42.
Count Down Shanna Swan 2020
Sperm Counts are Dropping
In 2003 69% of applicant donors at one major US sperm bank were accepted. By 2013 that number had dropped to only 44% despite a massive recruitment campaign. Sperm counts are dropping and the health of the sperm declining
Count Down Shanna Swan 2020
45% of Migrants Return Home
A recent study by the University of Washington suggests that 45% of all migrants return home. They go back to their families and “good food”. Mexican migrants within the USA provide an interesting example. There are 10.9m Mexican born individuals living in the United States. That number declined by 7% between 2010 and 2019. Prior to that between 2005 and 2010 net migration was zero. As many Mexicans went home as arrived. Even this underestimates the desire to go home. Of the 11m illegal immigrants in the USA half are from Mexico. They cannot go home without risking never being able to return. Mexicans fell to number three in the league table of US immigrants.
May 2022
Only 5.1% of the European Population are Migrants
Within Europe there are strong reverse flows. In 2019 there were an estimated 2.7m immigrants from non-EU countries. About 1.2m people emigrated from the EU to a country outside the EU. As of 2020 there were 23m citizens of non-EU countries resident in the EU, only 5.1% of the population. There were a further 13.5m migrants who had moved within the EU.
May 2022
272m Migrants in the World Today
The International Organization for Migration estimates that there are 272m migrants in the world today. These are people living in a country in which they were not born. Of these 41.3m are refugees. These are the people pushed from their country. War, famine, persecution, and natural disasters have driven them out. These numbers sadly have not been updated to include the people fleeing from the war in Ukraine.
People pushed from their countries tend to stay close. Of the 6.6m Syrian refugees, 5.3m are in Turkey, the Lebanon and Jordan. They are not beating on the doors of Europe but are in refugee camps waiting to go home.
May 2022
After an early lead by Europe, the Americas and Oceania the other continents are now accelerating and catching up.
Updated 2019
The Japanese Market is declining by 10,000 Customers a Week
In 2020, the annual births fell to 850,000 children. This was the lowest number since records began. Deaths were 1.4m , because of the ageing population. The Japanese market fell by half a million people in a single year. That is ten thousand consumers a week. That is equal to 5 full Boeing 787-8 planes leaving Tokyo Airport every day never to return.
Updated March 2022
14% of All Japanese Houses are Now Empty
Current estimates suggest that there are 8.5m empty homes in Japan. This is 14% of the total housing stock. Nomura the investment bank suggests a worst case scenario of 22m homes by 2038 as populations fall. This would be 31% of the total stock, nearly one in three. This is not concentrated in one specific area. Even in Tokyo it is estimated that one in ten houses are empty, according to the Government Survey of Land and Housing.
Japanese Housing Needs are Changing
In Japan currently 14% of all houses are empty. Certainly these are mostly in the rural areas. Urbanization has continued even though Tokyo is already a city of 36m people. However there are estimated to be 10% of houses abandoned even there. This is partly due to the idiosyncrasies of Japanese property ownership and taxes. But overlaying that is a structural shift in housing needs.
In 1960 only 16.5% of households where a single person lived. That more than doubled to over 38% in 2020. Half of the single person households were people with a job. The other half, or roughly 18% of all households, are where pensioners live alone. Young People entering the job market and retirees tend increasingly to live alone. The biggest group of men living alone are between the age of 25 and 34. Only 20% of young women live alone. But over half of all women living alone are over 75.
May 2022
Google delivered one hundred thousand searches per second yesterday.
On the internetlivestats.com site you can watch that number get bigger every second. Forty percent of the world’s population uses the internet on any given day. Updated May 1st,2022
3.2 Kilometres from the Check-In to the Gate
The worlds longest airport "walk", Beijing new International terminal
“The World’s Longest Airport Walks”
The Australian August 2012
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