Japan Shrinking by 10,000 Consumers a Week
Some countries are well ahead of any regional ageing curve. The most famous is Japan, which is an exception in Asia. After a brief post war boom, the fertility rate in Japan halved. It fell to the replacement rate as early as 1957. The fertility hovered at the replacement fertility level until around 1973. After that it sank to an all-time low of 1.26 children per female in 2005. Since then, it has risen slightly and has plateaued around 1.4.
In 2020, the annual births fell to 850,000 children. This was the lowest number since records began. Deaths were 1.4m , because of the ageing population. The Japanese market fell by half a million people in a single year. That is ten thousand consumers a week. That is equal to 5 full Boeing 787-8 planes leaving Tokyo Airport every day never to return.
April 2022
Latest data shows that the Japanese births fell to 811,000 in 2021. The best estimate for 2022 is below 800,000 births. The Japanese Office of National Statistics estimated in 2019 suggest that Japan would not reach this point until 2030. It has come 7 years too soon.
January 2023
Life Extends with Healthy Years
Germany is twenty to thirty years ahead of countries like the UK in Market Evolution
It is a good example of the changes that marketers will face all over the world in the future as markets change. The changes in the population represents the largest evolution of the consumer market since modern marketing was invented. Until the turn of the last century all service businesses were generating half of their growth from an increasing number of consumers. The balance came from increased consumption per head. Marketers in Germany can no longer count on more customers. In the period 2015-2030 McKinsey estimate that three quarters of any market growth in Western Europe will have to come from increased consumption per head (McKinsey Global Institute, 2016).
The German “post retirement” market will double between 2000 and 2050. It rises from 13.2 million in 2000 to 24.1 million in 2040. It will then plateau. For reference it was only 2.7 million in 1900. This is a fast-growing and attractive market with a narrow window of opportunity. By comparison, all other age groups are declining in size.
Within these dramatic changes we must even look at the split within the “post retirement” market. In 1900 there were just over 100,000 Germans aged eighty or over. This rose to 2.9 million in 2000. It will jump to 10.7 million by 2050, in only thirty years’ time. There will be more Germans over 80 market than under 15.
More Grandparents than Grandchildren
The Evolution of the German Population : A Case History
Cities and the Ageing Market
Chinese Cities will Decline
Tokyo would rank in the top fifteen on spending power if it were a country
Changing Household Composition
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