Consumer Markets are Changing Fast
Demographic changes are revolutionizing the shape of Consumer Markets around the world.
The European Consumer Market
The total European Consumer Market has peaked. In 2021 it reached 746 million. It will never return to that level again according to the latest UN Forecasts.
The biggest share of the market are the 25-64 year olds. As a market they too have peaked. They reached 411.8m in 2015 and then started to decline.
The Under 25 are the European Youth Market. They reached their maximum numbers fifty years ago in 1973. They are now 28% down from that peak. So too are the Under 15’s. They reached their maximum numbers in 1966. They are now nearly 30% down on that peak.
There is only one consumer market forecast to grow. They will grow for the next thirty years,. They are the over 65’s.
They will increase from 143m today to peak at 204m in 2056.
After that the whole market and every age group within it will decline. The UN forecasts that the whole market will be down 5% down by 2050 and 21% down by 2100. There will be 160m less consumers in Europe by then.
The German Market is ahead of the Rest of Europe
The 26-64 Age group of consumers peaked in 1969. The Under 15's reached their highest number at the same time. The Under 25's reached their highest number only two years later in 1972. The Only growth market left are the over 65's. Even they will plateau in 10 years time.
The Japanese Market is leading the World.
Within the next ten years all parts of the Japanese Markets will be in decline. The 26-64 Age group of consumers peaked in 1969. The Under 15's reached their highest number at the same time. The Under 25's reached their highest number only two years later in 1972. The Only growth market left are the over 65's. Even they will plateau in very soon.
Updated February 2023
Japan Shrinking by 10,000 Consumers a Week
Some countries are well ahead of any regional ageing curve. The most famous is Japan, which is an exception in Asia. After a brief post war boom, the fertility rate in Japan halved. It fell to the replacement rate as early as 1957. The fertility hovered at the replacement fertility level until around 1973. After that it sank to an all-time low of 1.26 children per female in 2005. Since then, it has risen slightly and has plateaued around 1.4.
In 2020, the annual births fell to 850,000 children. This was the lowest number since records began. Deaths were 1.4m , because of the ageing population. The Japanese market fell by half a million people in a single year. That is ten thousand consumers a week. That is equal to 5 full Boeing 787-8 planes leaving Tokyo Airport every day never to return.
Latest data shows that the Japanese births fell to 811,000 in 2021. The best estimate for 2022 is below 800,000 births. The Japanese Office of National Statistics estimated in 2019 suggest that Japan would not reach this point until 2030. It has come 7 years too soon.
Life Extends with Healthy Years
The Burden of Disease
Living Healthier Longer
Men having "limiting long standing illness" in 1997 and 2017
Data from the UK General Household Survey .
Germany is twenty to thirty years ahead of countries like the UK in Market Evolution
More Grandparents than Grandchildren
The Global Old/Young Split is Changing
The darker line is the percentage over 65 and the lighter “Under 15”. It shows that around 2075 the old will dominate the global market. The chart also shows the sheer huge number of older people. This grows for 129 million in 1950 to close to two billion by 2075 only 150 years later.
Evolution of the German Population 1900-2000
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The Evolution of the German Population : A Case History
The Power of the Cities
Cities and the Ageing Market
Chinese Cities will Decline
Tokyo would rank in the top fifteen on spending power if it were a country
Changing Household Composition